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Administrator. Executive member, Forum supporter.
Posts: 6,183
Reply with quote  #1 
Burstner Nexxo T660 - family fun
1974 Norton Commando
1999 Suzuki Hayabusa
Molly - Chocolate Labrador 
only a biker understands why a dog hangs its head out of the window
Exeter, East Devon


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Posts: 6,760
Reply with quote  #2 
All them numbers telling everything except how long till the end of the world. So waste of time really.😎

Alan    Ford transit pvc.

Bracknell forest Berkshire. 


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Posts: 448
Reply with quote  #3 
Simon, worldometer is a good source of data but they needs to be interpreted.
For example, if I understand correctly, the Active Cases are given by yesterday's quantity + today new cases - recovered - deceased.

Too many differences in the way of counting and showing certain phenomena by different nations.
For example, and as far as I know, Belgium counts the deceased from lung problems, even generic as if they were all from coronavirus.
Germany is more accurate, tracking (i don't know how) only those certainly deceased by coronavirus.
Italy is in the middle of two approaches.

In many countries on some days there are peaks, probably due to delayed communications or recounts and adjustments.
Two charts that I find useful are Newly Infected vs. Newly Recovered and Outcome of Cases (Recovery or Death) because they give a vision of the response of the health system and how it is under stress.

Unfortunately worldomoter does not include data like number of sicks in intensive care posts, number of sicks hospitalized without needs of intensive care, number of "lightly sicks", those with no symptoms or
light symptoms (not hospitalized, just in quarantine (hotels or similar facilities)).

For example, from 4 April (peak) we have gone from 4098 patients in intensive care to 1470 yesterday.
Same time interval, from 29000+ hospitalized (not intensive) to 20000.
Sign of a good trend.

So we were able to start phase 2, initially quite limited (leaving the region in which you live still forbidden for example).
Our government and scientists estimate that the percentage of busy intensive care posts should be less than 30% to completely stop the lockdown.
In the country we have about 9000, already today we would be in place but their location on the territory should also be considered based on the local infection rate.
Today Lombardy and Piedmont are still above the safe threshold.

Tests are another problem.
Every day we go from a minimum of 55000 to a maximum of 70000, numbers related not so much to available reagents but to the processing capacity by the analysis laboratories.
Then, about 30 to 40% are tests carried out to measure the effective healing, typically, for each patient two if not three or even four are needed after a few days.

So to measure the pandemic (also regionally) only new tests (positive and negative) are needed.
But if you are negative today, you may not be negative tomorrow.
These are all difficult situations to measure and manage.
I can certainly say that we have put in place a good escalation team and our gratitude goes to them.


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Reply with quote  #4 

Greece is a shining example to all of us. It is a poor country with an ageing population, yet the Government acted swiftly, the population responded, and they are ahead of the game. 

In fairness to Italy, it didn’t know what to expect when Corvid 19 hit it. However it was slow to react in shutting down the whole country. As for the U.K......we have been playing ‘catch up‘ from the beginning. Unlike Greece, we did not learn from Italy’s mistakes. I know Greece is a small country and less populated, but Athens is a big city, and Corvid 19 would have decimated it had the virus been allowed to spread.

One of the excuses by the U.K. Government re our situation is that they did not have the resources of a country like Germany to handle the epidemic. If you believe that, then watch how Greece has handled the same situation!


Auto Trail Frontier - Mohawk.

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